From:	C.D. Crepps
To:	Department Contacts
Cc:	Finance Office
Subject:	cpi rates
Sent:	THU,JUL18@9:44AM

Good Morning All,

Hope you all will stay out of heat, if possible, drink plenty of water, and just be safe during this heat wave and especially this weekend!

Please see attached XLS file for a recap of the recently released CPI figures through June 2019. The national CPI recaps historical trends in prices and does not necessarily indicate future trends. However, the information may still be helpful in negotiating prices and contracts with your vendors as some contractors like to tie their price increases to the national CPI rates.

The XLS file recaps four different CPI figures released by the U.S. government. Below are explanations of the figures in the attached XLS file:
1) One rate computes the price trend for all items purchased by urban wage earners and clerical workers. This is the most helpful rate, in my opinion, for most types of contract expenditures. For fiscal year 2019, prices have risen an average of 2.05% compared to 2.35% in fiscal year 2018, and 1.70% in fiscal year 2017. So, for example, if you paid $100.00 in June 2016 for a group of various items, you should expect to have paid $106.22 in June 2019 for those same items.
2) For medical care items, however, the example price of $100.00 in June 2016 would have risen to $107.73 in June 2019.

Please feel free to use this information in your price negotiations.

Via the attached XLS file, you can find a recap of the national CPI figures dating back to calendar year 2008. Since that time, some annual average CPI figures were negative in calendar years 2009 and 2015. For the most part, the annual average CPI figures of the past several years have been less than average when compared to 20 or 30 year trends. Why? The likely cause is that medical expenses have been trending much lower in this decade compared to the last decade. Because of this near stagnation of the economy over the past 10 years, many able-bodied persons have quit looking for work and some have even become disconnected with their local community.

Nationally, recent price increases appear to be trending lower than the annual average for the entire fiscal year. Combined with lower unemployment rates and other economic indices, confidence in the U.S. economy by the average person is increasing. However, as a rural county in NC with an aging population, you and I see people struggling every day. Please continue to encourage able-bodied persons to seek work and get involved in their communities.

Many of you are tuned into the national economy or even the local economy through other means. Using your knowledge, reflect on the past fiscal year, July 2018 to June 2019. Compare your thoughts to the national CPI.

Another update to national CPI rates should be emailed in mid-January, after the national CPI figures through December 2019 are released.

STAY COOL !!!

Best regards,
--CD