From:	C.D. Crepps
To:	Department Contacts
Cc:	Finance Office
Subject:	update--cpi rates for 2018
Sent:	TUE,JAN15@10:39AM

Good Morning All,

Please see attached XLS file for a recap of the recently released CPI figures through December 2018. The national CPI recaps historical trends in prices and does not necessarily indicate future trends. However, the information may still be helpful in negotiating prices and contracts with your vendors.

Many of you are tuned into the national economy or even the local economy through other means. Using your knowledge, reflect on the past calendar year, January 2018 to December 2018. And, compare your thoughts to the national CPI.

Nationally, with the exception of food and energy, recent price increases appear to be trending the same as the annual average. Recent prices for food and energy suggest a downward trend has begun.

The XLS file recaps four different CPI figures released by the U.S. government. One rate computes the price trend for all items purchased by urban wage earners and clerical workers. This is the most helpful rate, in my opinion, for most types of contract expenditures. For 2018, prices have risen an average of 2.55% compared to 2.15% in 2017, 1.00% in 2016, and negative 0.40% in 2015. So, for example, if you paid $100.00 in December 2015 for items, you should expect to have paid $105.80 in December 2018. For medical care items, however, the sample price of $100.00 in December 2015 would have risen to $108.42 in December 2018. Please use this information in your price negotiations, as needed.

Via the attached XLS file, you can find a recap of the national CPI figures back to the calendar year 2008. Since that time, some annual average CPI figures were negative in calendar years 2009 and 2015. For the most part, the annual average CPI figures of the past several years have been less than average when compared to 20 or 30 year trends.

Another update should be sent in latter part of July, once the national CPI figures through June 2019 are released.

Best regards,
--CD